Market Correction Continues at a Moderate Pace

By Chris Visser

Depreciation accelerated for trucks with average mileage in October. The value difference between individual makes and models is increasing, as is the impact of drivetrain specs. This dynamic is unfolding as expected in a market returning towards normality.

The average sleeper tractor retailed in October was 70 months old, had 464,349 miles and brought $95,579. Compared with September, this average sleeper was one month older, had 27,589 (6.3%) more miles, and brought $9,368 (8.9%) less money. Compared with October 2021, this average sleeper was three months newer, had 14,509 (3.2%) more miles, and brought $12,984 (15.7%) more money. This is the first month since December 2021 to average below $100,000.

Looking at two- to six-year-old trucks, October’s average pricing was as follows:

  • Model year 2021: $151,905; $4,253 (2.9%) higher than September
  • Model year 2020: $122,088; $12,863 (9.5%) lower than September
  • Model year 2019: $102,000; $6,631 (6.1%) lower than September
  • Model year 2018: $84,804; $6,372 (7.0%) lower than September
  • Model year 2017: $69,940; $5,448 (8.4%) higher than September

Three- to five-year-old trucks brought an average of 7.7% less money month over month, but 15.8% more than October 2021. Trucks in this age group brought 58.3% more money in the first 10 months of 2022 compared with the same period of 2021. Depreciation is averaging 2.1% per month in 2022, although that figure increases to 3.7% if we include only the most recent six months. Despite the ongoing correction, retail pricing for late-model trucks is still 45% higher than the last pre-pandemic peak.

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