TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts New Vehicle Auto Sales for April 2020
SANTA MONICA, Calif., (April 23, 2020) – ALG, Inc., a subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc. and the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales will reach 638,092 units in April 2020, down 54% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 7.7 million units. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 577,280units, a decrease of 49% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
"Like most industries in the U.S., the automotive industry has also suffered significantly from the Coronavirus pandemic," said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst at ALG. "By the beginning of April, a majority of the states had enacted ‘shelter at home’ orders along with closures of many businesses in an effort to limit the spread of the virus. Public health concerns mixed with job losses and economic decline led to a dramatic drop in automotive sales."
"Although most automakers saw big declines in sales, the domestic brands such as GM and Ford had a smaller percentage of loss than imported brands when compared year-over-year. Some of that is attributable to the generous incentive offerings from the domestics, and some of it is due to the higher mix of imports in the states that were initially hit hardest compared with the states that were impacted later."
"As ‘shelter at home’ orders continue during the month of April, consumers and dealers have shifted their behavior and leaned heavily into an online approach to car buying," added Lyman. "In TrueCar's own research, two-thirds of shoppers say they would be more likely to shop with a dealership that offers the components of TrueCar's Buy from Home service, which consists of vehicle sanitization, online paperwork, and vehicle delivery."
Additional Insights: (Forecast by ALG)
- Total retail sales for April 2020 are expected to be down 49% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Fleet sales for April 2020 are expected to be down 77% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Total SAAR is expected to decrease 53% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days from 16.4 million units to 7.7 million units.
- Used vehicle sales for April 2020 are expected to reach 1,086,494, down 71% from a year ago and down 60% from March 2020.
- The average interest rates on new vehicle loans is 6.4%, based on TrueCar data.
"We are starting to see fleet sales significantly decline. The relationships that automakers have with their partners and how they are willing to amend those agreements will be critical in fleet sales impact," said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM and Affinity Partner Analytics at TrueCar. "We expect that automakers with commercial and government contracts will fare better than those with daily rental contracts."
ALG’s Revised COVID-19 2020 New Vehicle Sales Forecast:
April 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by volume: (Adjusted for same selling days as April 2019.)
Total Unit Sales
| Manufacturer | Apr 2020 Forecast | Apr 2019 Actual | Mar 2020 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) | MoM % Change | MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMW | 8,213 | 26,502 | 16,301 | -69.0% | -70.2% | -49.6% | -51.6% |
| Daimler | 8,693 | 25,716 | 18,571 | -66.2% | -67.5% | -53.2% | -55.0% |
| FCA | 72,303 | 172,900 | 127,596 | -58.2% | -59.8% | -43.3% | -45.5% |
| Ford | 102,447 | 194,219 | 169,012 | -47.3% | -49.3% | -39.4% | -41.7% |
| GM | 141,874 | 233,682 | 169,952 | -39.3% | -41.6% | -16.5% | -19.7% |
| Honda | 55,249 | 125,775 | 77,153 | -56.1% | -57.8% | -28.4% | -31.1% |
| Hyundai | 28,655 | 57,025 | 36,087 | -49.8% | -51.7% | -20.6% | -23.6% |
| Kia | 30,538 | 51,385 | 45,413 | -40.6% | -42.9% | -32.8% | -35.3% |
| Nissan | 28,814 | 95,698 | 77,655 | -69.9% | -71.0% | -62.9% | -64.3% |
| Subaru | 24,500 | 57,288 | 32,611 | -57.2% | -58.9% | -24.9% | -27.8% |
| Tesla | 3,816 | 10,600 | 13,400 | -64.0% | -65.4% | -71.5% | -72.6% |
| Toyota | 86,603 | 183,866 | 133,198 | -52.9% | -54.7% | -35.0% | -37.5% |
| Volkswagen Group | 28,391 | 51,748 | 33,780 | -45.1% | -47.2% | -16.0% | -19.2% |
| Industry | 638,092 | 1,331,671 | 990,332 | -52% | -53.9% | -35.6% | -38.0% |
Retail Unit Sales
| Manufacturer | Apr 2020 Forecast | Apr 2019 Actual | Mar 2020 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) | MoM % Change | MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMW | 7,953 | 25,169 | 14,999 | -68.4% | -69.6% | -47.0% | -49.0% |
| Daimler | 8,311 | 23,933 | 14,124 | -65.3% | -66.6% | -41.2% | -43.4% |
| FCA | 70,555 | 126,433 | 61,066 | -44.2% | -46.3% | 15.5% | 11.1% |
| Ford | 84,352 | 119,854 | 109,433 | -29.6% | -32.3% | -22.9% | -25.9% |
| GM | 129,186 | 199,012 | 121,255 | -35.1% | -37.6% | 6.5% | 2.4% |
| Honda | 54,891 | 124,415 | 69,672 | -55.9% | -57.6% | -21.2% | -24.2% |
| Hyundai | 22,304 | 38,202 | 21,891 | -41.6% | -43.9% | 1.9% | -2.0% |
| Kia | 27,066 | 41,833 | 31,196 | -35.3% | -37.8% | -13.2% | -16.6% |
| Nissan | 21,638 | 68,300 | 40,530 | -68.3% | -69.5% | -46.6% | -48.7% |
| Subaru | 23,397 | 53,054 | 27,511 | -55.9% | -57.6% | -15.0% | -18.2% |
| Tesla | 3,816 | 10,600 | 13,400 | -64.0% | -65.4% | -71.5% | -72.6% |
| Toyota | 79,915 | 161,331 | 104,195 | -50.5% | -52.4% | -23.3% | -26.3% |
| Volkswagen Group | 26,656 | 46,984 | 27,402 | -43.3% | -45.4% | -2.7% | -6.5% |
| Industry | 577,280 | 1,080,950 | 686,966 | -46.6% | -48.6% | -16.0% | -19.2% |
Fleet Unit Sales
| Manufacturer | Apr 2020 Forecast | Apr 2019 Actual | Mar 2020 Actual | YoY % Change | YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) | MoM % Change | MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMW | 260 | 1,333 | 1,302 | -80.5% | -81.3% | -80.1% | -80.8% |
| Daimler | 382 | 1,783 | 4,447 | -78.6% | -79.4% | -91.4% | -91.7% |
| FCA | 1,748 | 46,467 | 66,530 | -96.2% | -96.4% | -97.4% | -97.5% |
| Ford | 18,095 | 74,365 | 59,579 | -75.7% | -76.6% | -69.6% | -70.8% |
| GM | 12,688 | 34,670 | 48,697 | -63.4% | -64.8% | -73.9% | -74.9% |
| Honda | 357 | 1,360 | 7,481 | -73.7% | -74.7% | -95.2% | -95.4% |
| Hyundai | 6,351 | 18,823 | 14,196 | -66.3% | -67.6% | -55.3% | -57.0% |
| Kia | 3,472 | 9,552 | 14,217 | -63.7% | -65.0% | -75.6% | -76.5% |
| Nissan | 7,176 | 27,398 | 37,125 | -73.8% | -74.8% | -80.7% | -81.4% |
| Subaru | 1,103 | 4,234 | 5,100 | -73.9% | -75.0% | -78.4% | -79.2% |
| Tesla | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Toyota | 6,687 | 22,535 | 29,003 | -70.3% | -71.5% | -76.9% | -77.8% |
| Volkswagen Group | 1,736 | 4,764 | 6,378 | -63.6% | -65.0% | -72.8% | -73.8% |
| Industry | 60,812 | 250,721 | 303,366 | -75.7% | -76.7% | -80.0% | -80.7% |
Fleet Penetration
| Manufacturer | Apr 2020 Forecast | Apr 2019 Actual | Mar 2020 Actual | YoY % Change | MoM % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMW | 3.2% | 5.0% | 8.0% | -37.2% | -60.4% |
| Daimler | 4.4% | 6.9% | 23.9% | -36.6% | -81.6% |
| FCA | 2.4% | 26.9% | 52.1% | -91.0% | -95.4% |
| Ford | 17.7% | 38.3% | 35.3% | -53.9% | -49.9% |
| GM | 8.9% | 14.8% | 28.7% | -39.7% | -68.8% |
| Honda | 0.6% | 1.1% | 9.7% | -40.2% | -93.3% |
| Hyundai | 22.2% | 33.0% | 39.3% | -32.9% | -43.7% |
| Kia | 11.4% | 18.6% | 31.3% | -38.8% | -63.7% |
| Nissan | 24.9% | 28.6% | 47.8% | -13.0% | -47.9% |
| Subaru | 4.5% | 7.4% | 15.6% | -39.1% | -71.2% |
| Tesla | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | - | - |
| Toyota | 7.7% | 12.3% | 21.8% | -37.0% | -64.5% |
| Volkswagen Group | 6.1% | 9.2% | 18.9% | -33.6% | -67.6% |
| Industry | 9.5% | 18.8% | 30.6% | -49.4% | -68.9% |
Total Market Share
| Manufacturer | Apr 2020 Forecast | Apr 2019 Actual | Mar 2020 Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.6% |
| Daimler | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| FCA | 11.3% | 13.0% | 12.9% |
| Ford | 16.1% | 14.6% | 17.1% |
| GM | 22.2% | 17.5% | 17.2% |
| Honda | 8.7% | 9.4% | 7.8% |
| Hyundai | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% |
| Kia | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.6% |
| Nissan | 4.5% | 7.2% | 7.8% |
| Subaru | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.3% |
| Tesla | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% |
| Toyota | 13.6% | 13.8% | 13.4% |
| Volkswagen Group | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% |
Retail Market Share
| Manufacturer | Apr 2020 Forecast | Apr 2019 Actual | Mar 2020 Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| BMW | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| Daimler | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% |
| FCA | 12.2% | 11.7% | 8.9% |
| Ford | 14.6% | 11.1% | 15.9% |
| GM | 22.4% | 18.4% | 17.7% |
| Honda | 9.5% | 11.5% | 10.1% |
| Hyundai | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% |
| Kia | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.5% |
| Nissan | 3.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% |
| Subaru | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.0% |
| Tesla | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.0% |
| Toyota | 13.8% | 14.9% | 15.2% |
| Volkswagen Group | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the TrueCar Inc.’s operations.)
About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in Canada since 1981.
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry’s most personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what’s a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in Austin, Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free), Email: pr@truecar.com.
TrueCar and ALG PR Contact:
Shadee Malekafzali
shadee@truecar.com
424.258.8694