Class 8 Retail Depreciation Relaxed in November

By Chris Visser

November’s retail environment was in line with expectations, with no notable pre-holiday bump, and average-mileage trucks continuing to lose ground. On the bright side, low-mileage trucks remained strong. The only notable delta in the averages below is for model year 2018 trucks, which declined due to a combination of a higher-mileage mix of trucks sold and natural market movement.

The average sleeper tractor retailed in November was 76 months old, had 485,541 miles, and brought $45,762. Compared to October, the average sleeper was 4 months older, had 22,838 (4.9%) more miles, and brought $4,819 (9.5%) less money. Compared to November 2018, this average sleeper was 7 months older, had 21,157 (4.6%) more miles, and brought $11,882 (20.6%) less money.

Looking at trucks two to five years of age, November’s average pricing was as follows:

  • Model year 2018: $95,102; $5,367 (5.3%) lower than October
  • Model year 2017: $74,884; $508 (0.7%) lower than October
  • Model year 2016: $58,633; $149 (0.3%) lower than October
  • Model year 2015: $45,194; $1,221 (2.6%) higher than October

Year-over-year, late-model trucks sold in the first eleven months of 2019 brought an average of 5.4% more money than in the same period of 2018. This positive result is due entirely to market strength in the first half of the year. Narrowing our focus to October-November 2019 vs. October-November 2018, 2019 is running 6.5% behind.

Depreciation in the first eleven months of 2019 averaged 1.9% per month, compared to well under 1% in the same period of 2018. This figure doesn’t change notably if we look only at the most recent 2-3 months. Pricing is now roughly on par with the last market bottom in 2016.

Dealers retailed an average of 3.4 trucks per rooftop in November, the lowest figure in at least 11 years. Even during the last market downturn in 2015, this average stayed above 4. November is not typically a strong month for used truck sales, but conditions slowed down notably this fall. For an in-depth look at factors we see impacting the market in 2020, download the December edition of Guidelines, available later this week.

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