Have we Reached the Tipping Point?

The average sleeper tractor retailed in June was 69 months old, had 460,840 miles, and brought $57,211. Compared to May, the average sleeper was identical in age, had 4,713 (1.0%) more miles, and brought $356 (0.6%) less money. Compared to June 2018, this average sleeper was 1 month newer, had 9,733 (2.2%) more miles, and brought $5,295 (10.2%) more money.

Looking at trucks three to five years of age, June’s average pricing was as follows:

• Model year 2017: $84,849; $8,941 (9.6%) lower than May
• Model year 2016: $69,377; $1,080 (1.6%) higher than May
• Model year 2015: $54,750; $2,387 (4.2%) lower than May

Year-over-year, late-model trucks sold in the first six months of 2019 brought 11.5% more money than in the same period of 2018. Depreciation in the first six months of 2019 averaged 1.1% per month, compared to 1.0% in the same period of 2018.

Looking forward, the tariff war with China may have cooled somewhat, but trade and economic policy remain unpredictable. The domestic economy is pulling back from its expansionary phase, and it is not yet clear whether this movement is just a correction of a more fundamental shift. Our forecast for the remainder of the year and 2020 shows pricing notably lower than the 2018 peak.