Sales Volume Pulls Back as Pricing Remains Stable

June 2026 Commercial Truck Guidelines Summary:

As of this writing, a de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East looks possible in the near term. Any resulting decline in refined fuel prices would likely put downward pressure on fuel surcharges and, in turn, spot rates. Given that much of the recent increase in spot rates has been driven by fuel surcharges, lower rates could create a modest headwind for used truck demand and values.

We are also monitoring the recent decline in retail sales per dealership, which showed strong promise earlier this year. It is logical that a spike in late-model used truck purchases coincided with a steep increase in spot rates, and we did not assume sales activity to remain at those elevated levels indefinitely. The decline in volume over the past two months suggests trade-in activity and drivers entering or re-entering the industry are factors with a ceiling.

All that said, the continuing tightening of capacity and utilization are the factors most meaningful to the current pricing environment, and the used truck market has turned the corner.