July 2026 Commercial Truck Guidelines

Summary

Since last month’s update, two factors directly impacting the used truck market made news. First, spot rates exceeded contract rates for the first time in four years. Until early this year, the fuel component of spot pricing was responsible for almost all the runup. By the spring, fundamental capacity tightness drove the continuinguptick. With fuel now a flat input in spot pricing, the shortage of available carriers is the dominant driver.

Second, Class 8 manufacturers have been re-hiring factory workers, reversing the layoffs imposed this time last year. Model-year 2026 orders are running at the highest rate in five years, but production and delivery has lagged. That situation looks to have turned the corner with the addition of a second shift at many plants. Fleets will expand capacity, and as new trucks are put into service, the current freight environment points to a higher volume of trades entering the used market.