APRIL 2023 COMMERCIAL VEHICLE MARKET UPDATE
CLASS 8 AUCTION UPDATE
Sales volume increased notably in March 2023, with most trucks sold showing higher-than-average mileage. As a result, depreciation accelerated.
Looking at three- to seven-year-old trucks, average pricing for our benchmark truck in March was:
Model year 2021: $87,000; $35,200 (28.8%) lower than February
Model year 2020: $64,317; $15,783 (19.7%) lower than February
Model year 2019: $50,411; $4,607 (8.4%) lower than February
Model year 2018: $36,368; $4,771 (11.6%) lower than February
Model year 2017: $25,456; $3,759 (12.9%) lower than February
The extreme drop in our average for model-year 2021 trucks may be exaggerated due to very low volume. Three-year-old trucks are certainly depreciating, but a more detailed assessment will not be possible until more of these trucks cycle through the used market.
With that in mind, late-model trucks averaged 14.3% less money in March than February, and 47.4% less money than March 2022. In Q1 2023, late-model sleepers brought in 46.6% less money than the same period of 2022. Monthly depreciation in 2023 is currently averaging 8.1%. The newest model years available in the marketplace are bringing about 25% more money than the strong pre-pandemic period of 2018, assuming average mileage per year. If we adjust values over time to 2023 dollars, that difference drops to about 5%.
The definition of “low mileage” is narrowing, with a notable price premium given only to trucks with less than 300,000 miles. With new trucks more readily available, demand for lower mileage used units has diminished. Also, fleets and owner-operators continue to offload their highest-mileage equipment, as excess capacity is no longer needed.