Class 8 Retail Channel Holding Steady

By Chris Visser

The average sleeper tractor retailed in November was 67 months old, had 446,378 miles, and brought $48,707. Compared to October, this average sleeper was one month newer, had 5,547 (1.2%) fewer miles, and brought $4,853 (11.1%) more money. Compared to November 2019, this average sleeper was 9 months newer, had 39,129 (8.1%) fewer miles, and brought $2,945 (6.4%) more money.

Looking at trucks two to five years of age, November’s average pricing was as follows:

  • Model year 2019: $95,821; $2,642 (2.8%) higher than October
  • Model year 2018: $72,165; $919 (1.3%) higher than October
  • Model year 2017: $52,737; $1,483 (2.9%) higher than October
  • Model year 2016: $39,929; $2,520 (6.7%) higher than October

Month-over-month, late-model trucks brought 3.1% more money. In the first 11 months of 2020, pricing averaged 14.5% lower than the same period of 2019. Depreciation in 2020 is now averaging 2.1% per month, an 0.3% improvement from last month. If we look at just the second half of 2020, depreciation is close to zero.

Large packages of identical trucks continue to cycle through the market, but that factor was scaled back from last month. Interestingly, the models affected do not show notable pricing deterioration outside of those package deals.

Dealers retailed an average of 4.2 trucks per rooftop in November, 0.5 truck lower than October, and the second month of volume pullback. Compared to October and November of 2019, the same period of this year is averaging 0.9 truck higher. Volume definitely recovered nicely in the second half of 2020, peaking at 5.6 trucks per month in September. Right now, the environment should feel similar to the acceptable conditions of late 2018 as opposed to the dismal conditions of late 2019.

Stay tuned later this week for our full November Guidelines market update.

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